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Risk of recurrence

Last updated: 29 May 2024
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  1. Breast cancer recurrence
  2. Risk of recurrence
Breast cancer recurrence

Key points

  • Breast cancer can recur after treatment for the primary cancer has been completed.
  • Loco-regional recurrence is where the breast cancer recurs in the same or nearby areas as the primary cancer, and this can be treated.
  • Distant recurrence is where the cancer has spread to other areas of the body (advanced breast cancer).

Breast cancer recurrence

A recurrence of breast cancer can occur months or years after treatment for the original cancer has finished. Recurrence is categorised by the area in which the cancer recurs:

  • Loco-regional recurrence: The breast cancer reappears in the same or similar area as the primary cancer (e.g the remaining breast tissue, chest wall or lymph nodes in the chest and axilla)
  • Distant recurrence: The breast cancer has travelled to other parts of the body, most commonly the bones, liver and lungs.

Recurrences undergo testing to determine their pathology, as this may have changed from the original diagnosis.

Loco-regional recurrences are also known as locally advanced cancer, and can be treated successfully. A distant recurrence means the cancer has metastasised, and this is incurable.

Patients presenting with a symptom of breast cancer recurrence should be referred back to oncology services for assessment. Patients with suspected recurrence should not be referred to the breast clinic.

Risk of recurrence

In New Zealand, 92% of patients whose breast cancer was detected by mammogram will survive 10 years or more. For patients who found their breast cancer via a palpable lump, 10-year survival is 75%.

The following factors further raise the risk of recurrence:

  • Lymph node involvement
  • Larger tumour size
  • Higher grade of cancer
  • Positive or close margins in tumour excision
  • Lack of radiation therapy following breast conserving surgery
  • Lack of endocrine therapy for hormone receptor-positive breast cancer
  • Triple negative or inflammatory breast cancer
  • Younger age (particularly patients aged under 35 years at the time of diagnosis)
  • Obesity.

The patient’s medical team will be able to discuss their individual risk of recurrence in detail.

Bibliography

  • Elwood J, Tawfiq E, TinTin S et al. Development and validation of a new predictive model for breast cancer survival in New Zealand and comparison to the Nottingham prognostic index. BMC Cancer. 2018;18(897). doi:10.1186/s12885-018-4791-x.
  • Meredith I, Seneviratne S, Gerred S, Ramsaroop R, Harman R. Patterns of axillary lymph node metastases and recurrent disease in grade 1 breast cancer in a New Zealand cohort: Does ethnicity matter?. Cancer Epidemiology. 2015;39(6):994-999. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2015.10.024 1877-7821/ã
  • Tin Tin S, Elwood J, Brown C et al. Ethnic disparities in breast cancer survival in New Zealand: which factors contribute?. BMC Cancer. 2018;18(58). doi:10.1186/s12885-017-3797-0.
  • Tin Tin S, Elwood J, Lawrenson R, Campbell I, Harvey V et al. Differences in Breast Cancer Survival between Public and Private Care in New Zealand: Which Factors Contribute?. PLOS ONE. 2016;11(4. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0153206 Journal

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