Prognosis for advanced breast cancer in New Zealand
It is difficult to predict how advanced breast cancer will progress. The patients specialist team may be able to give an indication of prognosis, however it is important to respect patients' preferences about what they want to know, when they want to know it and who should be with them.
Recently, in New Zealand, median survival has increased from 16 to 18 months from initial diagnosis. Of those living with ABC, 32% have survived for five years or more.
Patients diagnosed with de novo metastatic breast cancer have significantly longer survival than those with recurrent metastatic disease.
Survival rates over time
Years since diagnosis |
1 |
5 |
De novo disease survival |
72% |
23% |
Recurrent disease survival |
53% |
11% |
Survival further varies by subtype:
Years since diagnosis |
1 |
5 |
Luminal A survival |
71% |
22% |
Luminal B survival |
61% |
13% |
Luminal B2 survival |
70% |
13% |
HER2 enriched survival |
53% |
7% |
Triple negative survival |
31% |
2% |
Breast cancer subtype |
Median survival (months) |
Luminal A |
27.3 |
Luminal B |
15.9 |
Luminal B2 |
24 |
HER2 enriched |
13.3 |
Triple negative |
6.6 |
Average survival by ethnicity
Of all ethnicities, Māori survival five years after diagnosis of ABC is the worst at 5% compared to 15% for non-Māori. Median survival appears worse compared to non-Māori as well. It is unclear why survival rates among Māori are low. Barriers in accessing treatment may further exacerbate inequalities.
When the non-Māori population is divided into key ethnicities (European, Pacific Island and Asian), Asian patients appear to have the longest one- and five-year survival and the highest median survival. European patients’ survival appears to be 23% longer than Māori (though largely overlapping confidence intervals make this insignificant). The data indicates Asian and Pacific patients fare better on all three measures, although the confidence intervals are large.
